Market Diary:
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Sunday, August 26, 2012

Straits Times Index - Uptrend Getting Fatigue

There is evident from the STI chart that the uptrend established since June 4 is getting fatigue. Out of 30 components stocks of the index, 9 have sell signals, 12 hold, 7 hold ( trend weakened ) and only 2 buy. Details below :

Capitaland C31- Hold ( trend weakened )
CapitalMall C38U - Sell
CapitalMalls JS8 - Sell
CityDev C09 - Sell
ComfortDelGro C52 - Hold ( trend weakened )
DBS D05 - Hold
F&N F99 - Hold
Genting G13 - Buy
Golden Agri E5H - Buy
HKLandUS$ H78 - Hold
Jardine CC C07 - Hold ( trend weakened )
JMH400US$ J36 - Hold
JSH500US$ J37 - Hold ( trend weakened )
KepCorp BN4 - Hold
NOL N03 - Sell
Noble N21 - Hold
OCBC BK O39 - Hold ( trend weakened )
Olam O32 - Hold
SembCorp U96 - Hold
SembMar S51 - Hold
SIA Engg S59 - Hold ( trend weakened )
SPH T39 - Sell
ST Eng S63 - Hold
SingTel Z74 - Sell
SIA C6L - Hold ( trend weakened )
SGX S68 - Hold
Global Logistic Pro - Hold
Starhub CC3 - Sell
UOB U11 - Sell
Wilmar - Sell ( downtrend stock )

Notes :
Hold = If your entry was low and the stock is in-the-money. Continue to ride on the trend
Hold ( trend weakened ) = As above but the trend has weakened and sell signal may surfaced any time
Sell = Do not go long ( it does not imply you should go short though )
Buy = You may go long but should the index turn bearish you may need to exist as well

The Straits Times Index :

On the STI chart above, MACD has formed one dead cross and two "kiss of death" similar to the period between Feb 21 - May 3 before the index breakdown on May 4 when MACD crossover the zero line. MACD continues to trend down heading toward the zero line. The rate of ascend on the price chart has decelerated.  Aug 14 day's high failed to breach Aug 6 & 7 day's highs. Prices are now testing the uptrend line. 

There are enough caution signs from the above that the uptrend is weakening. When the uptrend line is violated and/or MACD crossover the zero line, do expect volatility to return.


Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Straits Times Index

The STI closed with a hammer today after touching the uptrend line and rebounded from it. Volume was light while CCI (5) has reached oversold.  There may be a technical rebound unless affected by poor overnight performance of Dow ( as of the time this post was written, Dow future was -30 ). 

At any time if the uptrend line is violated, the uptrend established since early June will be jeopardized.  


Saturday, August 18, 2012

Tiger Air

Genting SP is a stock in the process of "turning bullish". Tiger Air is a stock already bullish :


Genting SP

Several buy signals have surfaced for Genting SP. However, Friday's closing was a doji at evening star position, this may lead to some short term selling pressure. As long as the selling do not turn into heavy plunge ( see caution sign below on STI ), it is okay to buy on dip.

Genting - Trend Expert & Bull/Bear Buy Signals

Genting - K39, The Last Stochastic Buy Signal


 On the STI chart, a yellow candle surfaced signaling short term caution / weakness.


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Tuesday, August 14, 2012


I regretted for not sharing the chart for Noble earlier!  I have spotted the dual buy signals from the chart on last Tuesday ( circled ).  However,  I have withheld the post due to my prejudice against the STI being high and may due for pull back.. 

Noble Chart 1 ( dual buy signals surfaced on last Tuesday )

Noble Chart 2 ( Trend Expert bullish crossover )

Well, the charts above are hindsight. What next ?  

Based on today's technical scan, Yanlord ( $1.275 ) is having similar dual buy signals and Trend Expert bullish crossover. Do note that it is not realistic to expect a 13.5 cents gain like Noble every time when there is a buy signal. As a matter of fact, not all buy signals work especially if the index is not doing well.  So, index come first, then individual stocks. Should STI tumbles, the buy signal should not be taken.

Yanlord Chart 1 ( Trend Expert bullish crossover )

Yanlord Chart 2 ( dual buy signals )

Finally, a giant inverted head and shoulders pattern was spotted on GPL. However, this will only benefit long term investors and not short term traders. The price objective for the pattern is $3.0 but it will take some time to achieve.


Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Market View

I seldom have so many lines drawn on my chart. Let me explain what each of them are:

The vertical lines are Fibonacci time extension. It is used to project the major turning point of market top and bottom. As shown, the next major turning point is expected to be 22 days from today which is around end of August.

The shorter horizontal line shows that the STI has clearly breakout from the key resistance. The longer horizontal line shows the next key resistance at 3,200. 

The two slanting lines show clear sign of bearish divergence between the price chart and the momentum indicator.

What does all these mean? 

Being able to breakout from a key resistance that was established since February is a sign of strength. In the mid term, there is a good chance to retest 3,200. The time line to achieve this target is within the next 22 days. On the short term, the bearish divergence foreshadows some weaknesses ( short term ) ahead. Additionally, the warning in my previous post about August being a bad month for the STI ( calendar effect ) may still be relevant.  Therefore, it is advisable to be cautious because the potential upside is about 100+ points but the downside can be tremendous.


Wednesday, August 1, 2012

The Straits Times Index

In the chart below, the top panel is called "Trend Expert" :
Purple color trendline = Mid-term uptrend
Green color trendline = Mid-term downtrend
Red color candles = Short term uptrend
Green color candles = Short term downtrend
Buy when the trendline turns from green to purple and/or when Dow candles turn from green to red. When the red color Dow candles crossover the purple trendline from below, it is a very bullish signal.

The second panel is called the "Deviation Expert" works like RSI.

Based on the above explanation, the chart below for STI was able to capture all of the major moves since the uptrend started in June. According to this trading system, the uptrend is still intact. However, based on classical technical analysis. The market is near overbought. Although the index closed at 3,051 today ( 12 points above 3,039 ), it is hard to draw a conclusion whether it is a valid breakout yet. Ideally, we need 3% closed above for 3 days to constitute a valid breakout. But 3% on 3,039 which is about 100 points maybe too much. At least 1% or 30 points is the minimum to qualify for a valid breakout ( 3,070 ). Until a valid breakout is confirmed, any long position taken at this level remains risky.


Using the Trend Expert and Deviation Expert, there is a buy signal for Biosensors. 


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