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Tuesday, April 26, 2011

SembMar - Is it a good buy now?

Sembmar drops $0.30 today due to XD. Is it a good buy? I have some reservation for two reasons:
1. The peak on April 21 failed to breach the peak on April 8;
2. There is a bearish divergence on RSI and the underlying prices
I suspect SembMar may face some headwind in the near future.


Monday, April 25, 2011

Market View

On the daily and weekly charts, the Straits Times Index has shown a bearish divergence between the RSI and underlying prices. This has foreshadowed some near term weaknesses ahead. However, the longer term perspective remains bullish. As a matter of fact, the index has just turned bullish with a fresh mechanical buy signal ( referred to longer term ).


Thursday, April 21, 2011

KepCorp Revisited

[ Intrad Day 12:15pm ]

On March 29, I made a post in regard to the formation of a symmetrical triangle in KepCorp and gave a price target of $13.5. At that time, KepCorp was trading at $12.00. The target seems far fetched. Today, KepCorp is much nearer to the target where it is trading at $12.90 currently. A new breakout from a flag today is likely to take KepCorp to a new high.


Golden Agri

In response to the question from Style, Golden Agri has turned bullish. I see higher high and higher low in the chart.
In the mechanical chart, we have 'long ribbon' and 'blue candle'. Once we see a 'green arrow', it is time to go long. I will monitor this and will update the chart the moment buy signal surfaced. Of course, it look safe to preempt the trade if you wish to take advantage of lower price before buy signal surfaced (stop loss at .66).


Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) is showing bearish divergence in RSI for both the daily chart and weekly chart. It looks like DJIA will be facing some severe headwind soon! Key support 11,500.


Market Update

STI retested 3,120 and found support at 20 SMA confluence by a Fibonacci level. The index closed with a doji candlestick at star position. Typically, a snapshot like this in the chart denotes bullish reversal ( provided if Wall Street overnight does not weigh down sentiment ).

By the way, I have uploaded the PDF of the article I have written in the INVEST magazine. Please follow the link below to read the article:

"Profit Through Swing Trade Tactic"


Monday, April 18, 2011

Short Term Bearish, Long Term Bullish

Short Term :

STI is facing some selling pressure in the near term and may retest the support level at 3,120.

Long Term :

On the Point and Figure chart, a price objective is able to be determined:

[ 26 x 10 x 3 ] + 2920 = 3,700

This is a very ambitious target where I do not know whether to believe it or not. On the safe side, I will just take it as that the long term view of STI is bullish but I will not hold 3,700 as the absolute target. Furthermore, Point and Figure charting method does not provide time frame for the price target. So the 3,700 price objective could be after many whipsaw of up and down.


Thursday, April 14, 2011

SembMar - Swing Trade Setup

[ End Of Day Update ]

The entry at $5.88 was triggered. Prices rallied to $5.92 but closed below the trigger price at $5.85. If you have taken the trade, you should remain to be in the trade since no stop loss was triggered.

[ Intra-day Update - 9;30am ]

SembMar is up 2 cents despite the index is down 11 points. Yesterday closing was a doji at star position touching the 20 SMA. CCI was < -100 in oversold zone. There is a Swing Trade Setup pending for trigger. The trigger is at $5.88. Target being the last significant high. The setup will be invalidated if prices break below yesterday's low.


Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Profit Through Swing Trade Tactic

I am pleased to share with you an article I have contributed in the latest issue of the INVEST magazine, a bi-monthly investment magazine published by SPH. Please click on the image below to access the article in Page 27, 28 and 29. The hard copy, cost $5, will hit the newsstand this Friday.


Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Certified Financial Technician

If you chance into this blog because you are searching for help on STA Diploma Exam or IFTA CFTe Level II exam. Please click on the Market Wizards logo on the right to proceed to our main website.


Monday, April 11, 2011

Market View

There is no change in my market view - bullish but overbought. The pull back today is long overdue serves to correct the overbought situation. After shedding 26 points, the index is still overbought. I won't be surprise there maybe more downside ahead. On the mechanical chart, the index has returned to the bullish zone. So buy on dip !


Monday, April 4, 2011


Style has requested for the view of another counter MIDAS and here you go :

Although MIDAS has bottomed in Oct 2008, the rate of accent of the uptrend has been rather flat and there is a lot of sideways actions while trending gradually. Currently, prices are still below the 200MA and thus it is considered bearish. Latest prices have, however, found support for the 3rd time from the uptrend line. There is a good likelihood that prices will rebound from the trend line to retest the 200MA ( take note of the bullish divergence in RSI and a small invert head and shoulder pattern, both suggest short-term strength ).

To sum up, there is a fairly good chance where prices may advance to retest recent highs in the near-term. However, this is not a counter I will consider to add new position for mid to long-term trade because the uptrend line is too flat and there is too much sideways actions.

For trading purpose, it may be better off to look at the following counters ( except Synear and ChinaXLX, they are there because they are my pillow stocks ) :



This post is in response to the question from "Style" who has posted the question in the comment of my last post :

Yangzijiang ( YZJ ) has reclaimed much of its lost ground since March 16. The counter is turning bullish. However, technical buy signal has not been generated yet and will probably be generated when prices breach $1.90. Traders who are trend follower will forever faced the dilemma of missing the bottom if they wait for the technical buy signal or if they enter ahead of the buy signal may end up catching the falling knife. It is a tough decision that one need to be made based on risk appetite. Perhaps buy 50% in anticipation of the buy signal and another 50% when the buy signal surfaced? Another consideration is the investment time horizon. If you intend to hold for 3~6 months then minor fluctuation of $0.05 ~ $0.10 is not so important. If you are a swing trader aiming to reap a small profit, timing become very critical...

My view on STI and many counters including YZJ is that they are currently quite overbought. Some profit taking may be on the card. Since the market is generally bullish based on Point and Figure buy signal, buy on dip can be considered.


Sunday, April 3, 2011

Buy On Dip

The Straits Times Index

Many traders were caught unprepared by the strong market move since March 21 signaled only by a bullish divergence in RSI from the chart ( we caught the bullish divergence in our post March 20 Sunday ). Initially, they thought the rally was not sustainable and did not participate. Then as the days go by, they worried their late participation may result them in joining a party that is ending soon. If this is your dilemma too, you will be pleased to know the party has not even started yet. The market has just begun to turn bullish and more upside is expected (after some near-term profit taking sessions) based on a strong buy signal generated in the Point and Figure chart below :

Unfortunately, a price objective cannot be determined until the market pull back by at least 30 points where a new column of "0" is fixing the current column of "X" ( these are Point and Figure jargon ).

On the daily candlestick chart, Friday closing has faced resistance at 3,120. Stochastic is very overbought. Volume is getting lighter the last three sessions as prices continued to edge higher. All these are signs of short-term weakness signaling the possibility of a few profit taking sessions ahead.

At the backdrop of a fresh and strong Point and Figure buy signal and that the index has regained control of the 200 MA. Profit taking sessions become good opportunity to buy the dip.

KepCorp Update:
A breakout from the symmetrical triangle did occur. What we may see is a few sessions of profit taking bringing the prices back to touch the upper trendline of the symmetrical triangle. As long as the prices do not dip back into the symmetrical triangle, this will provide a 2nd chance for late comers to take advantage of the triangle pattern with a long term target of $13.50.

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