Market Diary:
World Indices:

Sunday, September 30, 2012

The Straits Times Index

The STI is trading between two converging lines - the resistance line at 3,088 and an uptrend line with three touches. As the two converging lines approaching the apex, it has to break one of them.  I tend to incline the breaking of the uptrend line ( circled ), which has bearish implication. This may coincide with a new MACD dead cross. We shall see as the market unfolds...


Thursday, September 27, 2012

ChinaMinZhong ( $ 0.81 )

ChinaMinZhong is testing the 200 MA. If it is able to overcome the resistance at 200 MA, we are likely to see .97 and 1.15. The red color bars in the MCD indicator ( lower pan ) shows the present of fund. I have collected some yesterday at .79.


Sunday, September 23, 2012

The Straits Times Index

The STI rose 89 points from the last doji on Sept 6 ( 2,989 ) to the latest doji on Sept 21 ( 3,078 ). Dojis are usually important chart point especially at strategic locations such as morning star or evening star. The previous doji was at morning star position and thus the STI has risen 89 points. The latest doji is not quite in the evening star position but "Trend Expert" has turned bearish ( short-term ) so the combined effect warrant some defensive actions. 

Trend Expert has turned color to green signify short term weakness


Thursday, September 6, 2012

Straits Times Index - Possible Technical Rebound

The Straits Times Index closed with a doji today at morning star position. Typically, this is a sign that foreshadow possible technical rebound. However, the rebound is likely to be short term. The mid-term trend remains weak which is stem from the inverted hammer in the monthly chart.


Sunday, September 2, 2012

Straits Times Index - Volatility Ahead

As expected, the Straits Times Index has turned bearish. Out of 30 components stocks, 17 have sell signal, 10 hold, 3 buy :

Capitaland C31- Sell
CapitalMall C38U -Buy
CapitalMalls JS8 - Sell
CityDev C09 - Sell
ComfortDelGro C52 -  Buy
DBS D05 -Sell
F&N F99 - Hold ( Weak )
Genting G13 - Hold
Golden Agri E5H -Sell
HKLandUS$ H78 - Hold ( Weak )
Jardine CC C07 - Sell
JMH400US$ J36 -Hold ( Weak )
JSH500US$ J37 - Sell
KepCorp BN4 -Sell
NOL N03 - Sell
Noble N21 - Hold ( Weak )
OCBC BK O39 - Sell
Olam O32 -Sell
SembCorp U96 - Hold ( Strong )
SembMar S51 - Hold ( Weak )
SIA Engg S59 -  Buy
SPH T39 - Sell
ST Eng S63 - Hold
SingTel Z74 - Sell
SIA C6L - Sell
SGX S68 - Hold
Global Logistic Pro - Hold
Starhub CC3 - Sell
UOB U11 - Sell
Wilmar - Sell ( downtrend stock )

On the daily chart ( Chart 1 ), the STI has decisively broken the uptrend line. It has generated the first sell signal since June 4 ( see Chart 2 ). We need to be able to differentiate the current weakness from the previous two pull back ( circled in Chart 1 ). The previous two pull back did not break any uptrend line and there were no sell signal generated. They were therefore opportunities to buy on dip. The current weakness may constitute a trend change or at least a change in the rate of ascend. There may be rallies from time to time but they are probably technical rebound in nature that won't sustain ( sell on bounce ).  The basis of this assumption is derived from the inverted hammer in the monthly chart ( Chart 3 ).  Typically, an inverted hammer ( shooting star ) in evening star position foreshadow weaknesses ahead. Since this is found in the monthly chart, the effect is more profound and we will see the impact within the next 1~2 months.

 Chart 1 - STI Uptrend Line Broken

 Chart 2 - STI First Sell Signal Since June 4

Chart 3 - STI Monthly Chart Shows An Inverted Hammer