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Market Analysis
Straits Times Index (STI):
The STI has retraced 194 points since January 24 at the back of high volume during the sharp plunge. It has found support at Fibonacci 23.6% confluence by the uptrend line and 200MA. It is likely the correction is not over yet. Next few major supports are 3200 (Fibo 38.2%), 3060 (Fibo 50%) and 2950 (Fibo 61.8%).
Despite the correction this far, the uptrend is still intact but not if the uptrend line and/or the 200MA is broken. At its current state, it warrants "Long Exit" but not "Short Entry" yet.
Dow Jone Industrial Average (DJIA):
The DJIA is currently supported at Fibonacci 23.6%. The uptrend is still intact as of now but not if the 200MA and/or the uptrend line is broken. Next few supports are 22400 (Fibo38.2%), 21000 (Fibo 50%) and 19600 (Fibo 61.8%). I don't quite believe the correction is over yet, it may last for several weeks if not months.
Labels: Market Action, Market Direction
Capitaland Updated Chart ( Ref original post January 16 )
On January 16, I suspected Capitaland was trading at the upper boundary of a trading band and may u-turn after touching it. Below are the original chart and the updated chart:
January 16 Chart:
February 10 Chart:
Labels: Market Action, Market Direction, Stock Pick
Yangzijiang Updated Chart ( ref original post January 10 )
On January 10, I casted doubt on the potency of the upswing of Yangzijiang. One month has gone passed, the market has proven me correct that the upswing at that time was just a 'return move' aimed at touching the broken uptrend line and thereafter Yangzijiang has to take the toll of breaking the uptrend line.
January 10 Chart:
February 10 Chart:
Labels: Market Action, Market Direction, Stock Pick
STI Technical Analysis
The Straits Times Index has been trading in an uptrend channel since Feb 2014 after a breakout occurred from an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern. The trading range of the channel is pretty wide. Currently, it is about 3/4 from the upper boundary where RSI is not overbought yet. Therefore, there might be further upside potential.
There are, however, two observations that deserve attention :
1. There may be a RSI bearish divergence under development ( unless the RSI do swing higher with rising prices ),
2. The gap up on January 23 may form an "Island" leading to an Island Reversal if this gap is closed with a gap down.
These two observations are pre-emptive in nature or something that we need to be cautious about. It is not something that will definitely happen.
Labels: Market Direction
STI Technical Analysis
The Straits Times Index has lost 160 points from July 31's peak ( 3,387 ) to Oct 2's trough ( 3,227 ). The closing today was the support for the previous 4 troughs coincided with Fibo 38.2% and 200MA. RSI is already oversold. Chances is we may find some support at this level. If, however, this support is taken. We may look forward for 3,170 and 3,120 which are Fibo 50% and 61.8% respectively.
Labels: Market Direction
STI Technical Analysis Feb 2014
The Straits Times Index has finally arrived at the trading range of 3,080 ~ 3,100, a level which I have cautioned in my previous post as a possible point of reversal. The closing today at 3,088 is a doji candlestick signalling indecision of the market. Prices have now returned to touch the trendline it has broken on January 24. The trendline is now served as a resistance. We shall see if the market will indeed heeds the above technical observation.
Labels: Market Direction
Straits Times Index Technical Analysis Feb 2014
The Straits Times Index
There is no change in my technical view on the market. I continue to believe the recent leg up is technical rebound in nature. The critical level to watch is the price action at 3,080 ~ 3,100. Of course, technical analysis is not infallible so I stand corrected if the market prove me wrong. However, my technical view was derived from the chart below which I believe make sense to anyone with technical analysis knowledge.
SembMar
Similarly, there is no change in my technical view on SembMar. It appears SembMar has already completed a textbook fashion's 'return move'. I am very curious too if the forthcoming move will validate the teaching of technical analysis.
Olam
Olam has arrived at an important chart point. The latest prices are touching a long term downtrend line confluence by short term resistance and 200MA. RSI is showing a bullish divergence. A strong breakout ( if occur ) from the downtrend line and short term resistance supported by heavy volume may signal a bullish reversal.
Kepland
Kepland is confronted by a short term downtrend line. It will either be a "Swing Short" setup if prices succumb to the downtrend line, or a bullish reversal ( since RSI exhibits a bullish divergence ) if a breakout occurs accompanied by heavy volume.
Wilmar
Wilmar is consolidating within a probable descending triangle ( there is only two touches so it is not a confirmed price pattern ). $3 is a critical price level. Once this level is broken, we may probably see $2.2 as the target.
M1
This is the most bullish counter in all of the stocks review here. It is the only one trading decisively above the 200MA and possibly an ascending triangle. A strong breakout at $3.5 will suggest a minimum target of $4.1.
For short term swing trade ( speculative play ), one can look at UtdEnvirontech, Vard Holidng, Oxley Holding…etc.
Labels: Market Direction, Stock Pick
STI Technical Analysis Feb 2014
The STI has violated an important multi-year uptrend line. In the near term, there is a likelihood where the index may stage a technical rebound to 3,080 ~ 3,100 since RSI is oversold. This is known as the 'return move' in technical analysis usually happen after a trendline violation. The target is derived from the support turned resistance of the recently broken uptrend line. In the mid to longer term, the STI may head toward the lower boundary of the downtrend channel to 2,880 ( which is Fibo 61.8% from a key peak and trough ). If this level is taken, we may look toward 2,700 as the target.
Labels: Market Direction
The Straits Times Index Updated Chart
The STI has reached a critical chart point where prices have now touched the lower boundary of the uptrend channel. The upcoming market action will decide whether the uptrend is intact :
Labels: Market Direction
Dow Jones Industrial Average Technical Analysis
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) is possibly forming a broadening triangle. A broadening triangle has bearish implication and it is usually accompanied by expanding volume. Unfortunately, volume data is not available in my charting software so it is unable to serve as a confirmation. However, a RSI bearish divergence has clearly formed so it is wise to stay vigilant.
Labels: Market Direction
ChinaMinZhong
The Straits Times Index
The market is currently in the "risk on" environment. Both the Dow and STI are trading near the multi-years resistance. Both indices have shown signs of RSI bearish divergence. Unless both indices can decisively breakout from the resistance, the downside risk outweigh potential upside.
Locally, the upcoming budget 2013 on Feb 25 could be the only catalyst left for the index.
ChinaMinZhong
I started to advocate ChinaMinZhong when it was .79. It has since then risen to a recent high at 1.095 before retracing. I continued to believe that this counter has the potential to reach 1.15 then 1.30 in the mid term ( subject to market sentiment ).
Labels: Market Direction, Stock Pick
CapMallAsia - Swing Trade Setup
Straits Times Index
The Straits Times Index has risen to two year's high. The market has reached overbought with a possible RSI divergence. The market has now entered "risk on". Next resistance 3,310.
CapMallAsia - Swing Trade Setup
There is a swing trade setup for CapMallAsia. Enter above 2.16, First target 2.25 ( and beyond ), stop loss 2.10. The setup will be invalidated if the price fail to breach 2.16 or fall below 2.10.
Labels: Market Direction, Stock Pick
Sector In Play - F&B and Property
The Straits Times Index is currently bearish. Despite bearish market, there are sectors which outperformed the market. Currently, Food & Beverage ( F&B ) and Property Sectors are in play.
For F&B, take a look at :
Y03 Yeo HS ( rallied from 2.28 to 5.39 in 5 days )
K03 KhongGuan,
A23 Auric,
Q01 QAF,
P05 PFood… all have long candles today.
For property, take a look at :
O10 Far East Orchard,
S05 Sim Lian,
H18 HoGGen,
E5P HrGlass…etc. All these have presence of fund.
Most of the above have skyrocketed and too far to chase. Let's now look at one which still have not run up too far yet - Super Group :
PS: KepT&T is very near to the price objective. Today closed at $1.425
Labels: Market Direction, Stock Pick
Dow Jones Hits Support
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) has arrived at a key support confluence by two trendlines. If the support is able to hold, prices should bounce up again. Otherwise, we may look toward 12,980 as the downside target :
Despite weak market sentiment for STI the past few days :
ChinaMinZhong = $ 0.85 high ( today )
Fraser Comm Trust = $ 0.19 high ( last two days )
KepT&T = $ 1.41 high ( last two days )
Labels: Market Direction
Bull Trap
The STI gaped down and broke the uptrend line reversing the bullish outlook it has falsely painted on last Friday after it has breached the resistance at 3,090. This is a difficult market. There was a bull trap at work. At Point A, I would thought that the market will break the uptrend line but it didn't. It went up to break the resistance at 3,090 instead ( Point B ) giving a false bullish picture. It finally breaks the uptrend line at Point C and turned bearish.
Labels: Market Direction
KepT&T and Fraser Commercial Trust
The Market:
The Straits Times Index breakout decisively from the resistance at 3,090. This is a sign of strength. Next resistance 3,200. The market is near overbought so it is quite possible to see some profit taking before continuing the journey toward the next resistance.
KepT&T
This counter has pretty low liquidity and therefore not a popular stock to traders. A flag is spotted with potential upside closed to $1.48 from Friday's closing of $1.36. There is presence of fund in this counter.
Fraser Commercial Trust
The chart below speaks for itself on the type of pattern this counter is going through..... There is presence of fund in this counter.
Labels: Market Direction, Stock Pick
STI - Short Term Bullish
Top Chart - "Strong Trend Signal Indicator"
Red candle = Buy signal
Dark blue candle = Riding the bull trend ( hold on to the positions on hand )
Yellow candle = Sell signal
Light blue candle = Staying out of the market
As seen, a red candle has surfaced from the STI today giving a fresh buy signal
Bottom Chart - "Trend Expert Indicator"
Purple color line = mid-term bullish trend
Green candles = short-term bearish
Red candles = short-term bullish
As seen, the trend line is purple color ( mid-term bullish ) and the candle has just turned red ( short term bullish ).
Note: The candles in the bottom chart are called "Dow Candles". They are modified from the ordinary candlesticks.
Labels: Market Direction
The Straits Times Index
The STI is trading between two converging lines - the resistance line at 3,088 and an uptrend line with three touches. As the two converging lines approaching the apex, it has to break one of them. I tend to incline the breaking of the uptrend line ( circled ), which has bearish implication. This may coincide with a new MACD dead cross. We shall see as the market unfolds...
Labels: Market Direction
ChinaMinZhong ( $ 0.81 )
ChinaMinZhong is testing the 200 MA. If it is able to overcome the resistance at 200 MA, we are likely to see .97 and 1.15. The red color bars in the MCD indicator ( lower pan ) shows the present of fund. I have collected some yesterday at .79.
Labels: Market Direction
The Straits Times Index
The STI rose 89 points from the last doji on Sept 6 ( 2,989 ) to the latest doji on Sept 21 ( 3,078 ). Dojis are usually important chart point especially at strategic locations such as morning star or evening star. The previous doji was at morning star position and thus the STI has risen 89 points. The latest doji is not quite in the evening star position but "Trend Expert" has turned bearish ( short-term ) so the combined effect warrant some defensive actions.
Trend Expert has turned color to green signify short term weakness
Labels: Market Direction
