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Sunday, February 27, 2011

Where does STI heading ?

Now that the Point and Figure target at 2,975 was met. It is no longer so straight forward as before to tell which way the market is heading. There are conflicting technical signals such as RSI is in oversold region suggesting selling may have exhausted. But on the other hand, prices are still trading below the 200 MA and Parabolic SAR is still in sell phase in the monthly chart.

What we really need to do is to watch how prices are reacting to the resistance at 3,040. This level is currently confluence with the 200 MA. A decisive break above this level may signal the end of correction. Whereas, a U-Turn from here could mean market may retest 3,000, 2,975 and then 2920.


Thursday, February 24, 2011

STI - Point and FigureTarget Met

I was wronged yesterday in presuming the Point and Figure target was met. The target was met today instead. Note that this target ( 2,975 ) denotes the "Minimum" price objective. It may go beyond. So it is quite possible that we will be looking at 2,920 with rebounds in between.


Wednesday, February 23, 2011

STI - Quick Update from Bangkok

STI hits a low of 2,988 today before closing slightly above 3,000. 2,988 was closed enough to be considered as the Point and Figure target at 2,975 being met, I guessed. Apparently, 3,000 should provide a good support for the time being based on how the bull was fighting back today at the backdrop of high volume. RSI is extremely oversold couple with a hammer candlestick ( not quite a hammer but well, close enough ). I suspect we are heading for a rebound ! Thereafter, we will need to reassess on whether it will return to retest 3,000.
IndoAgri was the most notable stock today that hit a low of 2.2 but closed 1 cent higher at 2.31. If I were to be in town, I would have caught it at 2.25.
--- MarketWizards posted from Bangkok


Tuesday, February 22, 2011

STI Plunged 51 Points, What's next?

STI plunged by 51 points today. According to the news, it was due to the unrest situation in Libya and high crude oil prices. It is interesting that the fundamentalist always need to attach a reason to the price action whereas such action has had traces from the price chart since one month ago. Anyone care to scroll down this blog would have found a price target of 2,975 and subsequently 2,920 since January 23~25. At that time, the unrest in Libya has not surfaced yet and crude oil prices wasn't a great concern. So is Libya and crude oil the real reasons or are we attaching these reasons to the price action?

Back to the market, STI broke the 200 days moving average ( MA ) today. The last time it has broken the 200 MA was May 2010. 200 MA is deemed as the divider between the bull and bear. Obviously, when prices are trading below the 200 MA, the bear is having fun.

There is no change in the market view. We are still looking at a minimum target of 2,975 based on Point and Figure chart and 2,920 based on candlestick chart. RSI is once again in oversold zone, it is possible that we see some rebounds before retesting the targets.

Finally, Dow is very overbought both in the daily and weekly chart. STI / HSI have been falling over the past weeks but Dow was lifted by hot money. When the hot money no longer able to lift the index, it is their turn to plunge and that may trigger STI / HSI to plunge some more to hit our target.

Point and Figure Chart - New sell signal was generated


Saturday, February 19, 2011

Golden Agri

Golden Agri lost 18 cents ( or 27% ) since January 5, 2011. The counter is currently bearish and there is no buy signal yet. However, the latest closing at $0.65 is touching two support levels confluence by two trendlines. RSI has reached oversold position.

Buying at support has the advantage of being early in reaping maximum profit provided if the support holds.
However, if the support fails. You will end up at the wrong side of the trend. A safer approach is to wait for proper buy signal but that is often late. So perhaps buying 50% at support and another 50% against buy signal may be a compromise...


BSX Breakout ( NYSE Stock )

BSX breakout from a short term downtrend line as well as a small congestion zone as shown in the chart. I managed to cash in 30 cents of profit from this breakout!

I continue to think that this is a mid-cap stock which heeds technical signal quite well, making it a 'tradable' stock. For US stock, you may buy as little as 1 share ( literally 1 share, not 1 lot which is 1000 shares ). So despite it is priced at USD7+, one may just buy 100 shares or 500 shares which is pretty affordable.


Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Market View

Both the Point and Figure chart and Candlestick chart are showing 3,040 as an important defense.

On the Point and Figure chart, 3040 will generate a new sell signal driving the minimum price objective of 2,975 closer.

On the Candlestick chart, 3040 is an important resistance turned support confluence with the 200 MA. Once this level is taken, the next support is likely to be 2,920.

A break above 3,120 may invalidate the current bearish view.


Thursday, February 10, 2011

STI - Parabolic SAR Sell Phase Triggered

The market is definitely not looking pretty. It does not require a technical analyst to point out this...

Two fresh Point and Figure sell signals were triggered today. Plus, Parabolic sell phase in the MONTHLY chart was triggered too. However, I maintain that the market will not move in a straight line so we may see some sunny days ahead ( perhaps until the Singapore Budget Day ). Thereafter, market may resume to be under selling pressure. The minimum downside target remains 2,975.

Actually, this Point and Figure target was forecasted in my post January 23 to 25.

I have loaded up some counters today in anticipation for rebound play. I will, however, make sure these are nimble trades and will get out if I am wrong.


Wednesday, February 9, 2011

STI - Point and Figure Sell Signal Triggered

Point and Figure sell signal triggered today at 3,165. The target for this sell signal is 2,975 by mean of vertical count. But it will probably take time to achieve and in between there will be technical rebound. During the rebound, there will be illusion as if all is well. But after the rebound, prices may continue to trend toward the Point and Figure target ( in other words, this target is a mid-term target ).

That said ( ie: with the target being 2,975 ), it does not imply one cannot profit from a nimble trade during the rebound. As a matter of fact, STI is quite likely to stage a strong technical rebound after three straight sessions of fall.

On the candlestick chart, current support is 3,120. Next support 3,040.

I am beginning to look at STI from a different perspective. Can it be a Descending Triangle is in the making?