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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

What Happen To STI ?

Dow was up 96 points, Hang Seng was up 184 points, Nikkei up 100 points and SSE up 46 points. Why was STI downed 0.61 points?
As explained by one of my remisiers, it is mainly due to the strong SGD that is pushing funds to the sidelines. From a fund point of view, they rather offload the Singapore stocks at this current level (SGD vs USD) and opt to hold onto cash, ready to shift back to USD rather than continue to buy the Singapore market up.


Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Straits Times Index

STI has returned to retest 2,700 ~ 2,707 and closed 1 point higher ( 2,708 ). One point gain is not high enough to draw the conclusion it has successfully broken the tough resistance built up since Aug 4.

Tomorrow will be a crucial day ! A decisive close above 2,708 will signal further upside to 2,800~2,900. The psychology behind this is simple. There are a lot of traders waiting at the sidelines since Aug 4 because they are worried about market topping. If STI is able to break 2,708 decisively. They will be convinced the market is going to head higher and generate renewed buying interest.

On the flip side, we will see STI returns to the trading range again. UOB Kayhian is extremely bearish about STI. In their report dated Oct 12, they tipped STI to cap at 2,710 and downside to 2,200.

The closing today has caused my Elliot Wave chart to recount ( again... and again.... ). Wave 5 has once again been pushed back so wherever it is going to terminate we will still see the correction we anticipated for 6~8 weeks to take place.


Tuesday, October 13, 2009

DJIA HIts Resistance

Dow retested the resistance at 9,937 but fall back quickly from the intra-day high of 9,978 to close at 9,885. The failure to close beyond the last significant high could signal a near term weakness. The long legged spinning top candle seems to suggest a 'rejection' to rally higher.

I could be wrong but this is how I interpret from the chart !

My mobile phone continued to be flooded with SMS on penny stock calls. The latest was Beng Kuang ....

The STI chart is not as clear as the DJIA chart. But I continued to suspect there is a probable Ascending Triangle being developed, which has a bullish implication. Has the long awaited retracement of 38% or so compromised by the sideways consolidation? Before I am certain of which way the market is going, I remain defensive in my action.


Sunday, October 11, 2009

DJIA Near Resistance

The local market continued to move sideways and dominated by penny stocks. The top active counters become more and more niche lately! Ying Li, Ramba, ZWO, EcoWise, Seroja....etc. are among stocks that steal the limelight. I am not sure about you, but I have not heard of them before. I am apprehensive to chase them ( despite that these are the counters recommended by my remisier in the daily SMS ) because I worry as soon as I enter the party is over and I will be stuck with them forever. But if you are fine with that, these are the counters you can make some quick money. Just browse through the top volume counters each day and pick anyone that you have not heard before but are climbing, no need technical analysis !

DJIA is near resistance now. We need to watch closely how it reacts to the last significant high at 9,937. Failing to break beyond may cause the index to retrace back to 9.635 and 9.450. If it is able to break 9.937 decisively, we may look forward to 10,800 before year end.

For STI, many chartists have expressed concern that the sideways movement appears to have shown a series of lower peaks & troughs ( lower high, lower low ). I shared the same concern but on the other hand I noticed the Kagi chart seems to provide a glimpse of light! Kagi is showing an impending breakout ( buy signal ) should STI is able to edge up slightly more.


Monday, October 5, 2009

China XLX Update

In my post dated Sept 21 ( here ), I speculated that a probable H&S is forming. Since then, I did not look at this counter until today. I am shocked to see that prices filled up nicely the channel lines I have drawn!


Sunday, October 4, 2009

DJIA Update (Oct 4)

This is the exact same chart I used on Sept 25. As predicted, Dow has finally touched the thick black trendline after losing 302 points in 4 straight sessions. Friday's closing was supported by the thick black trendline with a long legged doji at star position. I believed in the near term, it may bounce back to 9,650. Intermediate term still look bearish to me.

[Update] I have retracted my post on TechOil&Gas because it seems the trigger will never take place. Now that 40SMA was penetrated. The swing trade setup is destory.