Market Diary:
World Indices:

Monday, September 28, 2009

Mapletree Logistic

[Mapletree Logistic]
[Sept 28] Sold 2/3 of my holding today at .775. Guess what!? I accidentally keyed in the order as .755 instead of .775 and it was 'done' ! Fortunately, CFD Trader works in such a way that the executed price is at the market price so my order was filled at .775 despite the mistake!
[Sept 30 Update] Sold the remaining 1/3 at .775 too yesterday.


Friday, September 25, 2009

DJIA Update

Dow lost 120 points in two days. The closing last night was supported by the two trendlines in thick blue. There might be a short term technical rebound but I think the 120 points loss has not fully addressed the RSI divergence. After the rebound, they may head lower to touch the thick black trendline ( or there may not even be a rebound ). What I am trying to say is that the thick black trendline looks set to be the mid term support and the thin blue trendline is the longer term support.


Wednesday, September 23, 2009

DJIA Divergence

Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJIA ) is currently at resistance. RSI shows clear sign of bearish divergence ( the two black lines ).

Counters Update:
Mapletree logistic - breakout from the flag today but the breakout was not strong and volume was low.

The charts below were done for a friend Sandra on her request. I thought since I have them, I might as well post them here along with my commentary by verbatim:

Completed the consolidation phase and breakout today with high volume. More upside can be expected…..This is the most bullish of the three counters with strong trend.
I took a glance at the chart after reading your e-mail this morning. I thought it is going to move today and queued for 20 lots at 0.80. But I was very stubborn and refused to give in to half a cent more and didn't get it ! For half a cent, I missed the big move to .86.

HongKong Land:
Some warning signs spotted. RSI bearish divergence and there seem to be a rising wedge chart pattern. Rising wedge in an uptrend has bearish implication.

CDL Trust:
The trend is still strong but there is some warning signs for the near term move. RSI shows clear sign of bearish divergence, Parabolic SAR is accelerating and will catch up with prices soon. Near term upside is limited, cap at $1.6. Then there should be some pull back … and after that should retest $1.6 and $1.78.


Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Mapletree Logistic

Broker call. Look like a flag pattern forming to me.


Monday, September 21, 2009

STI - Conflicting Signals

I am reluctant to post the chart below, which suggest that there might be an Ascending Triangle forming. An A-Triangle is usually a continuation pattern that has bullish implication. Volume wise it is definitely not perfect textbook model so this may cast doubt on the potency. If, however, it is valid. The breakout target based on the pattern shown is 2,950.
The reason I am reluctant to post the chart is because I have been bearish about the market based on Elliot Wave count. I have been anticipating for a moderate correction to 2,250. So there is a conflict right now on which signal to believe - the Wave Theory or Classical Technical Analysis.
I will be watching closely on how STI is to resolve the major resistance at 2,700. This will give us clue on which way it is taking ! For now, I am bearish bias and tends to think that the A-Triangle is not real ( because many of the bluechips, such as Yanlord / Capland...etc. are showing bearish signs anyway ).



Capitaland has violated the up trendline on last Friday. The closing was supported by the 100 days moving average and the last significant low at $3.65. The trendline was violated by $0.05 or 1.4% of the stock price, not large enough to call it a decisive breakdown. Furthermore, $3.65 has been traded actively ( ie: with higher than usual daily volume ) and served as a strong support the past two weeks. OBOS indicators are showing sign of oversold. So perhaps it is too early to conclude the breaking of the up trendline on last Friday will immediately bring prices down to the next two supports. We may need to apply the two days rule to watch it for one more day and see if it bounce off from $3.65....
PS: Turtle System sell short trigger at $3.62 ( source, HC )


China XLX

Another probable case of Head & Shoulder chart pattern. Remember, the key word here is "probable". A chart pattern is not valid UNTIL it is completed, usually when a major trendline is broken ( in this case the neckline ). If prices bounce off the neckline and never look back, than this particular recognition is false. The downside target is $0.39 if the pattern is correct. Apart from the pattern, I did examine the volume. Volume in the case of XLX is even more ideal than Yanlord to match the H&S pattern.
Actually, I did not purposely try to spot for bearish pattern. I was trying to look for bullish stocks but unfortunately after reviewing several counters, they all end up to have bearish signs...



Yanlord appears to be forming a Head & Shoulder pattern. The pattern is confirmed ONLY IF the neckline at $2.2 is broken decisively ( ie: by 2~3% ). Once the pattern is completed, downside target is around $1.51. Incidentally, $1.51 is exactly Fibo 61.8% retracement from Aug 5 high to Mar 3 low.


Thursday, September 17, 2009

Market View

Near term :
May retest and break 2,707 to complete the wave count but upside is limited, cap at 2,760.
Intermediate term:
Bearish, heading toward a moderately deep correction of at least 38.2%.
Long term:

Admittedly, the call for such a correction has already overdue. But I will continue to stay defensive rather than to be sorry!


Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Longcheer - Flag Pattern Breakout?

If the breakout is real, target will be $0.76.


Tuesday, September 8, 2009

IndoAgri, Cosco & ST Eng

Spotted three charts patterns yesterday :
IndoAgri - breakout at $1.68 did occurs ( vested ! )
Cosco - Awaiting breakout at $1.32
ST Eng - A perfect Ascending Triangle except that volume did not contract per textbook model


Thursday, September 3, 2009

On Blog Leave

I received a few e-mails today asking me why my blog is locked suddenly where access is "by invitation only". I thought maybe I should make a short note here:
With CFTe level II exam just around the corner. I wanted to take a short break from blogging so that I can concentrate in my preparation. I will be flooding my blog with academic stuff such as the two posts below which are essay I have prepared as answers for the papers. Since these are my own works not related to the market, I thought I should keep it to myself for now. I will resume blogging at a later stage, so do check back....

PS: Anyone wish to keep in touch with me, my e-mail:


Wednesday, September 2, 2009

September Effect

Same chart but updated this morning. As seen, Dow has proven me wrong. The support I perceived to be strong has broken. Since last week, Dow has been ignoring positive news and data. This is the usual sign of market weakness!
Next support levels for Dow are 9,150 and 8,900 as marked in the chart. When we speak about supports. It doesn't mean prices MUST reach those levels. It simply means those are the areas where enough buying interest are identified. If reached, should prevent it from dropping further. But market can u-turn before those levels so one shouldn't be taking these levels as absolute and keep waiting there.
In Technical Analysis, there is this thing call calendar effect ties to cycle. September is typically the worst performing month while November / December are the best months. May be it is time to take a break and come back by end October!


Tuesday, September 1, 2009

S-Chips & Penny Stocks Signaling

Dow opened lower Tuesday morning [ 9:30pm Singapore time ] ahead of manufacturing and housing data. On Monday, Dow tested the uptrend line and bounced back after touching the trendline and 20 days simple moving average (SMA). I suspect this trendline and 20 SMA will continue to provide good support in the near term.

Locally, STI is back to the point where we are hugging the uptrend line again. We need to monitor carefully will the uptrend line and 20 SMA be able to hold over the next few days. Personally, I hate to see counters like Longcheer and Ace Achieve...etc. started to run again. This reminds me of Sept ~ Nov of 2007 where the end of party is not far. My hope is if Dow get supported, STI will be supported, because I am still incline with the idea we are still about 100 points away from the reversal.