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Sunday, February 28, 2010

Genting SP

Genting SP is a good example where a text book perfect setup is not infallible !

On Feb 19, Genting closed with a bullish star. The next day, the bullish star turned into morning star ( circled ) - a pretty strong bullish reversal candlestick pattern. Unfortunately, the next four days' move has proven the technical signal wrong. On Friday, my stop loss at $0.88 was triggered. When I relook at the chart today, I think my stop loss should have been placed at $0.87 instead (see the thick blue line). 1 cent diff has caused all my profit gained from SembMar to have wiped by Genting !

Despite the losses ( which was offset by the gain from SembMar ), I have no regret given this counter a try. The technical signal was so compelling and that it was text book perfect.

Anyway, if $0 .87 is taken, the next support is $0.78.

The Market:
STI has been a clear laggard since Feb 8 as compared to Dow, Nasdaq, S&P500, Nikkei, Hang Seng...etc. The current market has no doubt frustrate many traders ! The levels to watch remained a break above of 2,800 ( bullish ) or a break below of 2,727 ( bearish ).


Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Stock To Watch

IndoAgri Update:
IndoAgri breakout from last significant high. Next resistance $2.25 & $2.40. Vested.

Breakout as shown below:

SembMar Update:
The buy call on my Feb 4 post has proven to be profitable. Unfortunately, I took profit way too early and left too much at the table!

Genting Update:
View maintained unless it $0.90 fail to hold.

For longer term investment. Once $4 is cleared, next resistance will be $4.2 and $4.7.


Saturday, February 20, 2010

Market Commentary / Genting SP

The Market

STI rose strongly on the 1st trading day of Tiger Year (Feb 17). However, the candlestick for that day was a Hanging Man in bearish star position which has a bearish implication. The index tumbled sharply the next two days (Feb 18 & 19). The candlestick for Friday Feb 19 was a Hammer in star position suggesting a possible reversal subject to confirmation on Feb 22 Monday. If the index is able to close above Friday's high ( 2,772 ) and subsequently ( the next few days ) break above 2,797, the correction is considered over and the uptrend will resume.

For Dow, it has risen more than 300 points since our last post dated Feb 7 suggested for a possible reversal. The closing on Friday was a spinning top at bearish star position. The upward move since Feb 7 may be running out of steam. Since STI cannot decouple from Dow, this may has a impact on us.

Genting SP
The intra-day low at $0.90 was supported by an uptrend line, a resistance turned support line, and the 250 days Moving Average. The candlestick on Feb 19 Friday was a long legged doji in star position. There is a high probability where prices will bounce back from here. Technically, buy trigger at $0.96. Short term target $1.15, mid term target $1.25. Stop loss at $0.88.


Friday closing was a long legged doji at bullish star position. After market closed, government announced market cooling policy. The impact on property counters on Monday is not clear. If it tumbled below $3.8, the bullish star will probably invalidated. On the other hand, if it survives this news and edge up above $3.93, it will be a buy.

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Tuesday, February 9, 2010


I have cleared both Module 1A & Module 6 of the Capital Markets and Financial Advisory Services Examination (CMFAS Exam), the pre-requisite for a remisier licensing. Theoretically, I can be a remisier tomorrow. But I don't have immediate plan to do so yet. I have the next three years to exercise the option before I must re-sit for the module on "Rule & Regulation", which is Module 1A.

Both modules are pretty tough and required extensive preparation.

Module 1A - "Rules & Regulations For Dealing In Securities"
Chapter 1 - The regulatory bodies and self-regulatory organizations
Chapter 2 - Dealing mechanics and settlement procedures
Chapter 3 - Regulatory requirements relating to trading rep and operations
Chapter 4 - Regulatory requirements relating to market conduct & trading
Chapter 5 - Central Provident Fund investment scheme
Chapter 6 - Single stock future
Chapter 7 - Prevention of money laundering

This module is essentially the study of the "Securities and Futures Act (SFA) Cap 289", SGX-ST rules and SFR. 6~8 weeks of preparation time is necessary because there are so much to memorize ( line by line ). The mock question engine available in the market on paid subscription basis helps to a certain extend but don't expect many of them will turn out in the actual exam ( probably fewer than 6~8 question ).

Module 6 - "Securities Products And Analysis"
Chapter 1 - Investments and Financial Markets
Chapter 2 - Risk and Return
Chapter 3 - Financial Statement Analysis
Chapter 4 - Common Stock & Prefered Stock Analysis
Chapter 5 - Economic Analysis
Chapter 6 - Industry Analysis
Chapter 7 - Technical Analysis
Chapter 8 - Fundamentals of Fixed Income Securities
Chapter 9 - Bond Pricing, Return Measures and Interest Rates
Chapter 10 - Futures
Chapter 11 - Options
Chapter 12 - Warrants and Other Investment Products
Chapter 13 - Foreign Exchange and Swap Contracts
Chapter 14 - Unit Trust / Managed Funds
Chapter 15 - Portfolio Theory
Chapter 16 - Portfolio Management
Chapter 17 - Performance Measurement

8~10 weeks of preparation is recommended since the coverage is very wide and there is over 100 formula to remember. The actual exam has fewer than 15 questions required calculation but you never know which one will turn out so at the end of the day you will still require to memorize most of the 100 odds formula. The questions are not straight forward and often time very niche. Some of the questions are outside the scope of the booklet provided by IBF so some external study is recommended. Finally, the distribution of questions are not proportional to the number of chapters. That is, there is 17 chapters and you may expect each chapter to have around 6 questions. It does not work out that way. Some chapters like Technical Analysis has fewer than 3 questions while Unit Trust has more than 8. Again, the mock question engine helps to a certain extend but fewer than 5 questions came out exactly the same.

An excellent site for external study are :

-------------- The below was added on January 18, 2011 ---------------

 Module 5 - "Rules And Regulations For Financial Advisory Services" 
3rd Edition - September 2010 
Chapter 1 - The Regulatory Bodies And Associations 
Chapter 2 - Financial Advisers Act and Financial Advisers Regulations 
Chapter 3 - Notices - Part 1 
Chapter 4 - Notices - Part 2 
Chapter 5 - Guidelines - Part 1 
Chapter 6 - Guidelines - Part 2 
Chapter 7 - Product Development - Pricing of Insurance Products And ILP Policies
 Chapter 8 - Financial Need Analysis 
Chapter 9 - CPF MSS, CPFIS, SRS and Public Housing Scheme 
Chapter 10 - Prevention of Money Laundering and Countering The Financing of Terrorism

The textbook is the combined thickness of Module 1a and Module 6. The content is extremely dry . The English is legal style. When I first gotten the textbook, I told myself it is impossible to pass. However, as it turns out, the exam was much easier than I thought and even easier than Module 1a. Up to half of the 100 questions are very obvious ( just use common sense, you can't go wrong ). There are, however, several questions seem to be out of the scope of the textbook. There is no question that prompt you for "all of the above" or "none of the above". All questions have a specific answer from the 4 choices.

6~8 weeks of preparation is recommended. Despite being very dry, it is recommended that candidates read through the textbook at least 3 times.

I have cleared all three modules by self study. So that answer whether attending the $600 / module of courses is necessary!


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Sunday, February 7, 2010

Dow Jones - Possible Reversal !

Time and again, the market has proven it is not possible to decouple from Wall Street. Despite that the STI chart has shown signs of regaining strength if we look at it in isolation ( from other markets ). The sharp plunge of Dow by 268 points on Thursday has caused a tailspin of Asian bourses including STI, which has lost 61 points.

My worst case scenario for Dow is 9,650 and for STI is 2,600~2,650.

That said, it DOES NOT mean Dow & STI MUST reach those levels. The fact that Dow touches 9,835 on Friday before closing above 10,000 again & STI touches 2,680 MAY be good enough.

On the chart, the closing candle of Dow on Friday was a typical reversal long legged doji at star position. This has been true for several past corrections highlight in yellow. But if this assumption is wrong, we will eventually see Dow to touch 9,650.

I have begun to accumulate some bluechip like Capitaland & SembMar.


Thursday, February 4, 2010

Are We Out Of The Wood ?

The Market:
STI has corrected for almost 4 weeks now. Are we out of the wood yet? Well, we need to observe two key levels in order to answer this question:
1. If the index is able to break above 2,785, chances is we are done and will head for a mini CNY rally.
2. If, however, the index breaks below 2,706, more downside can be expected ( support are 2,600~2,650 ).
The direction of STI is largely affected by Dow. But if we put aside the external factor and just look at the STI chart by itself, there is sign where the index is beginning to gain back some momentum ( evident by ROC & MACD histrogram turning positive ).


The chart is looking compelling. If the market ( STI ) turns bullish, this could be a counter to consider!

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