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Merry Christmas!
There is no change in my market view!
I will be off for a family vacation overseas beginning tomorrow till next Thursday.
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year !
Labels: Trading Digest
CityIndex
CityIndex Problem
For the past two weeks, I have observed a pattern in Cosco and Yangzijiang. That is, they both move in tandem of each others. If Yangzijiang is trading at $1.10 while Cosco at $1.05, the laggard ( Cosco ) will catch up very quickly and trade at the same price.
This morning, I spotted such a scenario again. While Yangzijiang was trading at $1.17, Cosco was still at $1.13. There was a spread of 4 cents where I can profit from.
I immediately placed a trade via CityIndex for 20 lots of Cosco at $1.145. As soon as I placed the order, I tried to look up for the order from the Active Order tab but no open order was found. After struggling for a while, I called CityIndex. I was shocked when they told me other than keying in the buy order for 20 lots, I have keyed in another order to sell the same 20 lots at the same price I bought them. I wonder how can it be possible? The trade history below shows the buy and sell orders were 3 seconds apart. How could it be possible that I can keyed in two orders consecutively with 3 seconds apart!?
At the end of it, a trade that I could have made $400 in one minute ( because Cosco did rally up to $1.165 as I was talking to CityIndex ) ended up losing $21.70 in commission. I think I am going to cancel the CityIndex account and park my fund elsewhere!
=== Updated on Sept 2, 2011===
The same problem happened again the next day. Having gone through what I had gone through once before, I was extra careful and cannot be wrong this time. I have decided that enough is enough, I will move away from CityIndex!
Labels: Trading Digest
Random Thoughts
Despite the market volatility, I have made many trades in August. So far, all of them have been profitable ( the profits are quite small though since all of the trades were intra-day ) except two trades:
1. August 18 : Yangzijiang ( Long Trade ) - My stop loss was triggered (entry 1.115, stop loss 1.09)
2. August 19 : SGX/Wilmar ( Short Trade ) - Exited at cost because prices didn't dip much, lose $150 in commission
I have learn several things from these trades:
1. This market is all about "tikum", not technical analysis. If you have made a correct bet on how the market may behave the next day and buy ( or short ) today, you win. If you bet it wrongly, you lose. The market is not giving you a chance to make money if you enter the very day itself ( ie: if you didn't short or bought the day before ) because it will either gap up or gap down. There is no meat left when you jump in ( this is especially true for shorting ).
2. The market not only required us to "tikum" but it has been very tricky too. Within the same day, the market can move up and down to cross the zero mark 3~4 times!
3. Brokerage commission is very crucial. Take the 2nd losing trade ( SGX/Wilmar ) for example, even with cost in cost out, my losses are $150 ( Poems CFD DMA ). I have resolved that I should focus on my CityIndex CFD account where the commission is $10.70 flat per trade regardless of trade size.
There is no change in my market view per the last post. I suspect we are heading toward the first down leg of 2008 bear market. I will be watching for sign of recovery but for now what I see is lower high, lower low ( which is a bear trend ).
Labels: Trading Digest
STA Diploma Exam
Congratulations! Mr Paul Truscott
Market Wizards LLP would like to congratulate Mr Paul Truscott from Western Australia who has been awarded not only a distinction grade in the April 2011 STA Diploma Examination but also become the recipient of the prestigious Bronwen Wood Memorial Award.
Anyone planning to sit for the IFTA CFTe II ( Certified Financial Technicians ) or STA Diploma examination may obtain help from Market Wizards main website:
http://www.marketwizards.com.sg
Labels: Trading Digest
Profit Through Swing Trade Tactic
I am pleased to share with you an article I have contributed in the latest issue of the INVEST magazine, a bi-monthly investment magazine published by SPH. Please click on the image below to access the article in Page 27, 28 and 29. The hard copy, cost $5, will hit the newsstand this Friday.
Labels: Trading Digest
Certified Financial Technician
If you chance
into this blog because you are searching for help on STA Diploma Exam or
IFTA CFTe Level II exam. Please click on the Market Wizards logo on the
right to proceed to our main website.
Labels: Trading Digest
IFTA Exam
One of the problems faced by candidates attempting the STA Diploma / CFTe Level II examination is that the expectations are not clearly defined ( eg: format of chart analysis report is not clear…etc. ) . This is especially true for candidates who sit for the CFTe Level II exam as a private candidate as opposed to those who have attended preparatory courses from their respective societies.
Market Wizards LLP visualized the problem and we are here to help!
We offer mock answers to the past year examination papers ( Chart Analysis Only ). The mock answers are carefully written by our trainer who has attempted the examination and passed with DISTINCTION grade. Our trainer is a Full Member of the Society of Technical Analysts UK ( MSTA ) as well as Certified Financial Technician CFTe ) accredited by IFTA.
Please access Market Wizards LLP's website by clicking on the below icon to find out more details :
Labels: Trading Digest
CFTe II
One of the problems faced by candidates attempting the STA Diploma / CFTe Level II examination is that the expectations are not clearly defined ( eg: format of chart analysis report is not clear…etc. ) . This is especially true for candidates who sit for the CFTe Level II exam as a private candidate as opposed to those who have attended preparatory courses from their respective societies.
Market Wizards LLP visualized the problem and we are here to help!
We offer mock answers to the past year examination papers ( Chart Analysis Only ). The mock answers are carefully written by our trainer who has attempted the examination and passed with DISTINCTION grade. Our trainer is a Full Member of the Society of Technical Analysts UK ( MSTA ) as well as Certified Financial Technician CFTe ) accredited by IFTA.
Please access Market Wizards LLP's website by clicking on the icon below to find out more details :
Labels: Trading Digest
CFTe Exam
One of the problems faced by candidates attempting the STA Diploma / CFTe Level II examination is that the expectations are not clearly defined ( eg: format of chart analysis report is not clear…etc. ) . This is especially true for candidates who sit for the CFTe Level II exam as a private candidate as opposed to those who have attended preparatory courses from their respective societies.
Market Wizards LLP visualized the problem and we are here to help!
We offer mock answers to the past year examination papers ( Chart Analysis Only ). The mock answers are carefully written by our trainer who has attempted the examination and passed with DISTINCTION grade. Our trainer is a Full Member of the Society of Technical Analysts UK ( MSTA ) as well as Certified Financial Technician CFTe ) accredited by IFTA.
Please access Market Wizards LLP's website by clicking on the icon below to find out more details :
Labels: Trading Digest
STA Diploma / CFTe Level II Exam
One of the problems faced by candidates attempting the STA Diploma / CFTe Level II examination is that the expectations are not clearly defined ( eg: format of chart analysis report is not clear…etc. ) . This is especially true for candidates who sit for the CFTe Level II exam as a private candidate as opposed to those who have attended preparatory courses from their respective societies.
Market Wizards LLP visualized the problem and we are here to help!
We offer mock answers to the past year examination papers ( Chart Analysis Only ). The mock answers are carefully written by our trainer who has attempted the examination and passed with DISTINCTION grade. Our trainer is a Full Member of the Society of Technical Analysts UK ( MSTA ) as well as Certified Financial Technician CFTe ) accredited by IFTA.
Please click on the icon below to find out more ......
Labels: Trading Digest
Society of Technical Analysts Examination Result
Finally! The result of the "Society of Technical Analysts, UK" examination has released. I have passed with a DISTINCTION grade and have formally been admitted as the full member of the Society of Technical Analysts (STA, UK).
With this, I have attained the following qualifications in the financial market:1. Diploma in Technical Analysis ( Distinction ) awarded by STA UK2. Full member of the Society of Technical Analysts, UK (MSTA)3. Certified Financial Technician of IFTA (CFTe)4. Module 1a of CMFAS passed5. Module 6 of CMFAS passedLabels: Trading Digest
Position Size
Being able to buy at day low and sell at day high to a trader is like scoring hole-in-one to a golfer! Last Friday, I had the privilege to assimilate the joy of hole-in-one from my SembMar trade. I entered the trade at $4.28 and took profit at $4.39 making 11 cents. For Swing Trade, my profit expectation is usually a few cents. Therefore, ten to eleven cents are more than satisfactory for a nimble trade. Anyone who wonder how a few cents can be considered as profit should review his position size. If the position size is too small, eg: 1 lot, you will need many, many bids to be profitable. To achieve the 'many, many' bids will require a 'long, long' time. Time in the market translates into risk. Conversely, if the position size is large enough, even 1~2 bids can be profitable. Obviously, the time frame required to achieve a few bids will be relatively short.Over the years, I have learnt to trade at a position size not too small that must take forever to be profitable ( of course, not too large to be over trade ). In term of stock selection, usually on stocks above $1 ( preferably $2 ~ $4 ). Most of the Swing Trade opportunity identified here are aimed at 8~15 cents and 2~5 days. Based on this criteria, 3 out of my 4 trades last week was good ( F&N, SembMar & IndoAgri were good, Capitaland was bad ).Dow Jones Industrial Index:
ADX declines from 40 to 30 signaling the uptrend has weakened ( may be heading for a correction from extreme, see last post ). RSI is exhibiting sign of a failure swing ( not complete yet and not confirm yet ). Anyway, there is warning signs for a cautious week(s) ahead.
Straits Times Index;
The long term trend is still up. However, the index need to close above 2,996 ( or round figure 3,000 ) to be bullish. ADX is sending us a caution sign of weakening uptrend since it is declining....
Labels: Trading Digest
CMFAS Exam
I have cleared both Module 1A & Module 6 of the Capital Markets and Financial Advisory Services Examination (CMFAS Exam), the pre-requisite for a remisier licensing. Theoretically, I can be a remisier tomorrow. But I don't have immediate plan to do so yet. I have the next three years to exercise the option before I must re-sit for the module on "Rule & Regulation", which is Module 1A.
Both modules are pretty tough and required extensive preparation.
Module 1A - "Rules & Regulations For Dealing In Securities"
Chapter 1 - The regulatory bodies and self-regulatory organizations
Chapter 2 - Dealing mechanics and settlement procedures
Chapter 3 - Regulatory requirements relating to trading rep and operations
Chapter 4 - Regulatory requirements relating to market conduct & trading
Chapter 5 - Central Provident Fund investment scheme
Chapter 6 - Single stock future
Chapter 7 - Prevention of money laundering
This module is essentially the study of the "Securities and Futures Act (SFA) Cap 289", SGX-ST rules and SFR. 6~8 weeks of preparation time is necessary because there are so much to memorize ( line by line ). The mock question engine available in the market on paid subscription basis helps to a certain extend but don't expect many of them will turn out in the actual exam ( probably fewer than 6~8 question ).
Module 6 - "Securities Products And Analysis"
Chapter 1 - Investments and Financial Markets
Chapter 2 - Risk and Return
Chapter 3 - Financial Statement Analysis
Chapter 4 - Common Stock & Prefered Stock Analysis
Chapter 5 - Economic Analysis
Chapter 6 - Industry Analysis
Chapter 7 - Technical Analysis
Chapter 8 - Fundamentals of Fixed Income Securities
Chapter 9 - Bond Pricing, Return Measures and Interest Rates
Chapter 10 - Futures
Chapter 11 - Options
Chapter 12 - Warrants and Other Investment Products
Chapter 13 - Foreign Exchange and Swap Contracts
Chapter 14 - Unit Trust / Managed Funds
Chapter 15 - Portfolio Theory
Chapter 16 - Portfolio Management
Chapter 17 - Performance Measurement
8~10 weeks of preparation is recommended since the coverage is very wide and there is over 100 formula to remember. The actual exam has fewer than 15 questions required calculation but you never know which one will turn out so at the end of the day you will still require to memorize most of the 100 odds formula. The questions are not straight forward and often time very niche. Some of the questions are outside the scope of the booklet provided by IBF so some external study is recommended. Finally, the distribution of questions are not proportional to the number of chapters. That is, there is 17 chapters and you may expect each chapter to have around 6 questions. It does not work out that way. Some chapters like Technical Analysis has fewer than 3 questions while Unit Trust has more than 8. Again, the mock question engine helps to a certain extend but fewer than 5 questions came out exactly the same.
An excellent site for external study are :
http://thismatter.com/money/bonds/bond-yields.htm
http://www.khanacademy.org/
-------------- The below was added on January 18, 2011 ---------------
Module 5 - "Rules And Regulations For Financial Advisory Services"
3rd Edition - September 2010
Chapter 1 - The Regulatory Bodies And Associations
Chapter 2 - Financial Advisers Act and Financial Advisers Regulations
Chapter 3 - Notices - Part 1
Chapter 4 - Notices - Part 2
Chapter 5 - Guidelines - Part 1
Chapter 6 - Guidelines - Part 2
Chapter 7 - Product Development - Pricing of Insurance Products And ILP Policies
Chapter 8 - Financial Need Analysis
Chapter 9 - CPF MSS, CPFIS, SRS and Public Housing Scheme
Chapter 10 - Prevention of Money Laundering and Countering The Financing of Terrorism
The textbook is the combined thickness of Module 1a and Module 6. The content is extremely dry . The English is legal style. When I first gotten the textbook, I told myself it is impossible to pass. However, as it turns out, the exam was much easier than I thought and even easier than Module 1a. Up to half of the 100 questions are very obvious ( just use common sense, you can't go wrong ). There are, however, several questions seem to be out of the scope of the textbook. There is no question that prompt you for "all of the above" or "none of the above". All questions have a specific answer from the 4 choices.
6~8 weeks of preparation is recommended. Despite being very dry, it is recommended that candidates read through the textbook at least 3 times.
I have cleared all three modules by self study. So that answer whether attending the $600 / module of courses is necessary!
Website : http://www.marketwizards.com.sg
Blog : http://marketwizardsllp.blogspot.com
Email : admin@marketwizards.com.sg
Labels: Trading Digest
Trading Digest
Today is not a day for Swing Buy due to poor market sentiment ( perhaps Swing Sell )! Sigh, my OCBC was stopped out at $8.52. I could have profited 13 cents if I sold it at $8.69 but instead I loss 4 cents ! What else, but greed !?
All of the Swing Buy setup depicted here were valid but again market sentiment was poor. I think it is a good idea to have one set of Swing Buy and another set of Swing Sell counters. Depending on market sentiment, enter whichever accordingly!
I did collect some ST Eng under cash trade ( instead of margin trade ) because I intend to keep them for slightly longer!
Labels: Trading Digest
What Happen To STI ?
Dow was up 96 points, Hang Seng was up 184 points, Nikkei up 100 points and SSE up 46 points. Why was STI downed 0.61 points?
As explained by one of my remisiers, it is mainly due to the strong SGD that is pushing funds to the sidelines. From a fund point of view, they rather offload the Singapore stocks at this current level (SGD vs USD) and opt to hold onto cash, ready to shift back to USD rather than continue to buy the Singapore market up.
Labels: Trading Digest
On Blog Leave
I received a few e-mails today asking me why my blog is locked suddenly where access is "by invitation only". I thought maybe I should make a short note here:
With CFTe level II exam just around the corner. I wanted to take a short break from blogging so that I can concentrate in my preparation. I will be flooding my blog with academic stuff such as the two posts below which are essay I have prepared as answers for the papers. Since these are my own works not related to the market, I thought I should keep it to myself for now. I will resume blogging at a later stage, so do check back....
PS: Anyone wish to keep in touch with me, my e-mail: mimosa_view@yahoo.com.sg
Labels: Trading Digest
Candlestick Trade - High Risk Game !
Time and again, I hurt myself in the same fashion. Despite that I have a view of the market and my own trading plan. I could not resist the temptation when I receive the daily SMS buy alert from my technical broker cum trainer. I have filtered off two such prior alerts but not sure why I didn't do the same for the 3rd call which was for Wilmar.
I entered the trade at $6.28 two days ago based on a SMS buy alert. There was a candlestick setup called STS. The result, few hundred dollars have flushed down the toilet soon after I took the position in the morning where the stop loss at $6.16 was triggered the same afternoon !
I am fully convinced by now that the so called "Professional Trading Tactics - Using Candlestick" is a high risk game. I may have made a little bid of money out of a few trades but more often ended up with larger losses. The problem is that these setup ( STS, CTC, Bullish Gap, Bearish Gap, Tired Bear, Tired Bull, Exhausted Bear, Exhausted Bull... etc. ) required that you enter the position after a large decline of 3 ~ 5 days when prices push back to above the previous day low. The trigger for the setup often turn out to be a bull trap. The fact that we can only enter when prices push back to higher than previous day low versus a layman who simply grab it at the low price is making us more vulnerable when we realized we are tripped by a bull trap. Moreover, the setup pays no attention to the current trend. & broad market sentiment. Even if the current trend is bearish, it is still a buy based on the setup since this is a guerrilla trade.
This is not an isolated incident ! On June 10, I entered a trade for Kepland at $ 2.6 based on exactly the same SMS alert & setup. Guess what, when Kepland nose dived to $ 2.05. My paper loss was $5,500 ! I did not practice cut loss for that trade. I bite the bullet and eventually ride it through to see the sky....
I write this to remind myself, I should refrain from candlestick & counter-trend trade..... no more buying on impulse based on SMS alert too ! If I stick on to my belief consistent with my blog here, I won't be a few hundred dollars poorer this week ! Well, if someone hurt me once, it is not my fault. When someone hurt me twice, it is my fault !
Labels: Trading Digest
Day 2 of pull back !
Day 2 of pull back ! This time by 41.93 points. Both days combined, -74 points.
In the past, I would have gotten ready for opportunity trades using setup such as STS, 3~5 bars drop or other swing trade method to take advantage of possible technical rebound. However, I am cutting back on my trades since early July. From March to June, I have been generating about $800 per month of commission for my broker ( based on 0.145%, $25 min ). Almost everyday there is a trade! I think I am making too many trades and ought to scale down. That's why, I am more picky on my entry this time. If not, everyday there is trading opportunity.
STI is at the verge of triggering Parabolic SAR sell phrase. RSI over bought situation has eased but still have room for further downside. I will pass on the technical rebound play ( if any ) and focus on better entry ( probably take 1 ~ 2 weeks or beyond because the market won't move in a straight line ) should the index continue to correct further. However, the odds of a 5iii, 5iv & 5v recount still exist unless the index continue to plunge heavily from here.
Labels: Trading Digest
Chart Lied !
All TA practitioners who look too hard at the chart were fooled ! This applied not only to local analysts but to analysts across the pacific ocean in the US who stared too hard at the Dow chart. The strong rally has changed the technical landscape of the chart overnight !
Last night, I told myself not to be too subjective and stubborn. So I removed the H&S lines from my chart and replaced it with two trend lines ( the blue ones ). I told myself those are the level STI needs to break in order to turn bullish and invalidate the H&S. I did not quite believe it will happen or it will break both blue lines within one day. Obviously, I was dead wrong. However, this is a good mistake for me as I have been net long. I am sorry to those who shorted the market on the basis of 'short on bounce, long on dip'. 
Labels: Trading Digest
Intra-day Chart
STI Daily Chart : Parabolic SAR buy triggered
The amateur decides the opening prices & day range. The professional decides the closing prices. Sometime, it pays to be patient to watch where the market is going instead of rushing in based on an indicator and get trap.
Labels: Market Direction, Trading Digest
