Market Diary:
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Thursday, April 30, 2009

Locked In Profit ....

I have exited my wining positions ( IndoAgri & Capitaland ) and locked in profit for the long weekend ! Judging at the past two day's move, next week should have new trading opportunity!

IndoAgri & Cosco, day high at .935 and 1.03 respectively. Very close to the target !


Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Opportunity Trade

There are many counters with 20/20 WRB candlestick set-up after the last 2 ~ 3 days of sell down. I do not want to anticipate whether STI is up or down tomorrow ( as of the time this post was written, Dow was -80 points ). If it is another day with blood shed, then the set-up will probably be postponed to the next day ( better ). If it is an up day ( or down first then up, better also ), the trigger will be when prices bounce back to above the previous day low.

So.... when a trendline is broken, it is not possible to be 'forgiving'. I am talking about STI of course. 1,650 ~ 1,700 may still be on the cards the next few weeks after some rebounds & sideways move!

Capitaland, broke the trendline as expected. There might be a 'return move' to hug the trendline again before heading down to 2.25. While returning to hug the trendline, if it is able to break above the trendline, the down trend may end at where we are today since it has already retraced 50%.
Cosco, I knew on Saturday it will not be so rosy.... but now maybe okay!

SPC, Failed to break trendline and reversed from there but I still have faith with this counter for position trade.
It will break the trendline on its next attempt.

I was in the chatroom briefly yesterday. I am not use to the style of some of them. One moment Kencana Agri, another moment Yongnam.... I think that is gambling, not trading or TA. I am use to doing my analysis & making my trading decision away from the market, during end of day. On the trading day itself just look for the trigger and execute the trade. I suggest all those who take the market as casino to read the book "Trading For A Living" from Dr Alexander Elder. Read the first chapter will do !


Sunday, April 26, 2009

SPC & Capitaland

The Market:
There is nothing new I could say in addition to my last post on Thursday. STI is drifting sideways. We need to observe whether it will bounce back to retest 1,947 or to break the 20 moving average and edge down to the respective Fibonacci targets.

SPC ( Watch For Breakout ):
Since my last post on March 31, SPC has risen 60 cents after successful breakout from the resistance. It is now one of the few uptrend stocks strong enough to hold on to the 10 moving average ( while many have withdrawn to 20 moving average ). The upcoming week will see SPC testing an up trendline confluence with the 200 days moving average. If it is able to break both successfully, more upsides can be expected. Targets are marked in the chart !

Friday's closing sat exactly at the trendline shown in the chart. If we are lucky, it may bounce back from here. But chances are it may break the trendline and head down to the next two Fibonacci supports at 2.4 & 2.25. I am beginning to accumulate this counter for position trade. If it does bounce back, 2.69 ~ 2.70 will be swing trade entry and 2.57 is cut loss point.

PS: Cosco..... I was quite excited at the first glance but not sure if it is so rosy after taken a harder look.

(my own notes: Wilmar 3.45, Indo .86, Capland 2.4, 2.25, spc 3.3 )

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Thursday, April 23, 2009

STI Trendline Broken

The up trendline has finally broken. The violation signals a possible trend change but not necessary a reversal. The uptrend rises at a steep angle of 60 degree, the rate of ascent is usually not sustainable.
The index is currently supported by the 20 days moving average. If we can be more 'forgiving' about the violation of the trendline and focus on the existing set-up ( prices are hugging 20 MA, CCI is still low ). The outlook may not be as pessimistic as I original portrayed ( ie: STI will retrace to 1,650 ~ 1,750 ). What may happen is that the index is trying to re-adjust to a slower rate of ascent at 45 degree. But if the defense put up by the 20 MA don't hold, the pessimistic view may come true. For now, there seems to be a chance for some upsides based on the swing trade set-up.

Wilmar......oh Wilmar ! I was correct on the chart pattern breakout but did I buy? NO! The past three days have been very hectic for me work wise. First, I have overseas visitor in town.... Next, I need to sit for the CFTe exam amid the busy schedule! There was day where I don't even have time to look at the index !
Capitaland - Tomorrow ( if it ever happen ), swing trade buy signal trigger at 2.75 ! Again, TA is not about buying at the lowest. If it is, 2.65 today would have been a better entry !


Tuesday, April 21, 2009


The symmetrical triangle I have depicted in my post dated April 11 has broken out and completed the return move today. Look up for the next breakout....


Straits Times Index - Critical Day (Updated)

[9:30am] STI is currently testing the up trendline. If it closes below the up trendline at the end of the day, we will be looking at 1,650 ~ 1,750 over the next few weeks. If it closes back within the up trendline ( ie: the gap down today is an intra-day penetration, then it is not so bad ), the index is likely to bounce back up to retest 1,950.
I am queuing for a few counters with small quantity each as a 'probe'. Even if the up trendline is broken, there is a chance for technical rebound the next 1 ~ 2 days before the downtrend resume. Most counters as well as the index are oversold after 4 red candles.

[5:15pm] Unbelievable, from -48 or so to +12 back within the trendline. I fully appreciate the notion 'do not anticipate, trade by set-up'. Luckily I managed to pick up something, not a basket full but at least not empty handed. Both counters I loaded up are in the money now!


Thursday, April 16, 2009

Straits Times Index - Crucial Juncture

STI tested the major resistance today but reversed from there. The closing is a 'dark cloud cover' candlestick. On March 27, STI closed with the same candlestick pattern ( resulted in two days of sharp plunge ). The volume today is much heavier than March 27, this has a more bearish implication. As stated before, momentum indicator shows clear sign of bearish divergence signaling the uptrend is losing strength. We need to watch closely over the next few trading sessions whether the up trendline will be broken. Once the up trendline is violated, we can expect the index to reverse to 1,650 ~ 1,750.
The uptrend started in March 10 and has risen for 34% to date. The musical chair has rotated to penny stock this week ( rose by 14% ). Each time, when you see Yongnam,* CSC*, Lian Beng* are moving, it usually signal the uptrend is in question !

* what I really meant was penny stocks in general


Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Golden Agri

I exited Golden Agri at .38 today. I entered the trade on Feb 16 at .31. Unfortunately, the up trendline was broken the very next day (circled) leaving me at the wrong side of the market. I cut half the positions at .29 immediately. I am glad I am able to profit from the remaining positions today, finally!
The symmetrical triangle I have identified on April 6 end up to be a valid one despite that on April 7 & 8 the prices close back into the triangle. As stated, the minimum target is .38 and the target was met today. This counter is really tricky ! Since the breakout was near vertical, the next thing we can look up for is a pennant or flag in the near future.

STI closed at 1,905.99 today. Very tricky two days indeed, open low close high. I will continue to stay defensive meanwhile awaiting opportunity for the next trade.


Monday, April 13, 2009

Staying at the sideline again.....

STI managed to clear 1,868 today to close at 1,876. This is needed to confirm the potency of the up trendline. The next major resistance is at 1,960, which is only 84 points away. The index has risen 122 points in three straight sessions. CCI is again in overbought. The risk / reward ratio has prompted me to exit all my wining swing trade positions today ( with a decent profit ). I will once again stay at the sideline to wait for new opportunity.
Those swing trade positions are still good but I just don't want to go through any potential rough ride especially where I can contra them off with a gain. Usually, I have a lower expectation on contra gain. If I need to hold, I will adhere more closely to my target.
I will still buy on the next dip but as we are approaching nearer and nearer to the major resistance, I will be more nimble with each trade. Instead of opening 3 ~ 4 new positions at one go, I will probably focus one at a time but with larger position size. Contrary to conventional wisdom ( larger position size means higher risk ), larger position size actually allows us to be more nimble.


Sunday, April 12, 2009

STI - Crucial Week(s) Ahead

The coming 1 ~ 2 weeks is pretty crucial for STI.
First, STI needs to clear the last significant high at 1,868. Failing which, the uptrend is in question.
Next, STI must break the critical resistance at around 1,950 in order that the double bottom formed by Oct 28 low & March 10 low to complete. This will mirror the onset of bull market in 2003.
Personally, I think 1,868 is not a problem to clear. But at 1,950, the index will probably reverse to 2nd & 3rd support. This is a typical reaction for double bottom called 'the return move' ( or throwback ) forming a W V pattern before the next time when the index rally up to clear 1,950. I think this should tally with the Elliot Wave count too.


Saturday, April 11, 2009

Yanlord, Olam & Wilmar

I am vested for all three counters review below. All of them are stocks above 200 days moving average:

Entered on Thursday (Friday was "Good Friday" holiday) based on the criteria of 3~5 bars drop candlestick set-up. Entry level was at 1.26 ( Wednesday intra-day high ). Notice that technical trading does not always try to find the lowest entry but enter when prices bounce back based on set-up.

Possible Ascending triangle breakout & completion of throwback:

So far, most of the charts I have shared here are close-up shots. Here is a zoom-out view giving a bigger picture of what may happen for this stock. Watch for breakout at $3.41 ( approximately ):

[Technical knowledge] Triangles are usually intermediate term ( 1 ~ 3 months ) continuation chart patterns but sometimes can act as reversal pattern especially near market bottom or top. Volume should diminish* as the price swings narrow within the triangle. Chart patterns at market bottom takes longer time to form and prices are less volatile. Chart patterns at market top take shorter time to form & prices are more volatile.
*except for broadening triangle which will be opposite


Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Buy on dip triggered !

EOD Chart Update:
Nice closing today !! A hammer at star position, CCI touching oversold. Good chance for a rebound tomorrow.

Intra-day Update (11:30am)

STI has corrected to between 1st & 2nd support. It has returned to hug 10 moving average. CCI is touching oversold. I have collected some on Wilmar & are queuing for Capland, SPC, SGX.

Golden Agri Update:
Prices closed back inside the triangle. Even if it breakout again, the breakout is too close to the Apex. The triangle pattern & breakout should be a false one !!


Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Venture Corp


Monday, April 6, 2009

My Trading Plan

First, let me get rid of this "cake sim" one first!
The breakout I have anticipated finally took place today ( +26 cents ), not until I have exited the position on last Friday. If I said I can take it easy, I am lying ( it means $1,000 to me ). However, if time could be rewound, the outcome may still be the same. I did not want to carry the trade over the weekend because STI is trading nearer and nearer to the resistance. It is a matter of risk/reward ratio and money management. I did not expect STI to be so resilient anyway. Furthermore, my contra period is due soon so I was willing to square the position on last Friday with a small gain. Sigh !!

Golden Agri:
I believe this is a valid symmetrical triangle breakout judging from the pattern, time & volume. CCI is currently at overbought so this may tally with a throwback ( or return ) typically seen in chart pattern breakout. If the throwback don't close below 0.30 and continue to rally from there. The pattern is complete and the minimum target shall be 0.38. Symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern. Since the prevailing trend was uptrend, the max target can be the entire uptrend.
Again, if the prices close inside of the triangle again, the pattern & breakout become false one.

The following four counters are what I will be eying at if the market retrace. The 1st, 2nd & 3rd levels of support are marked in the chart. Given the bullishness of the market, we may not be given the luxury ( Capland, especially ) to see the 3rd support been touched ( I guess ). Anywhere between the 1st & 2nd support, which will tally with 10 & 20 moving average, could be potential entry. I will probably time the entry by examining the daily chart during intra-day ( using NextView or SI Station ) and try to enter when CCI touching oversold.
I know I should not "anticipate" or "hope" and ought to be objective. But somehow, I hope the market can either retrace for a few days or if it is a one day affair can be heavier. Reason, I feel safer to buy on dip if we are further away from the resistance.
STI closed with a spinning top today at evening star position ( can't say for sure is this a shooting star ). Based on candlestick pattern, this is bearish ( rejection, selling pressure ). However, the recent rally has frequently made me a fool & sometimes a clown so I shall not draw any conclusion but let the market unfolds !!


Saturday, April 4, 2009

Waiting..... to buy on dip!

I exited my two swing trade positions on Friday with a profit. I will stay at the sideline early next week to observe if the market will retrace to the two support levels shown in the chart. The index has moved too fast & too far away from the 10 & 20 moving averages. At some points, it will come back to hug the averages again. I await the opportunity to buy on dip when that happen. I have a buffet of counters in my watchlist waiting for trigger.
PS: The odds: Since volume was extremely heavy the past two days, market may not succumb so easily. It may push a bit higher before coming down creating a dark cloud cover.


Thursday, April 2, 2009

Humongous Rally !

Eclipsing overnight gains on Wall Street and a rally on the Asian bourses, the Straits Times Index closed 5.9% higher Thursday, or 101.08 points, at 1,803.34. The index has gained about 20% in the past three weeks.
The rally today was humongous! However, a quick look at the intra-day 30 minutes chart for the Index and some major index-linked counters. Many of them show 'hanging man candlestick' at closing casting shadow on the follow through buying momentum for tomorrow......
My swing trade positions for SPC & Wilmar ( just entered today ) are both in-the-money. I am hoping the market can have some follow through buying tomorrow morning before profit taking set in. I hope I can liquidate my positions for a profit ahead of the market and then re-enter new positions at lower prices so that I can enjoy a fresh 5 days contra period. I believe both counters can still trend higher after the profit taking!
Olam, oh..... how can I missed out on you! I mentioned about you on last Wednesday but did not buy. It rose 23cents today! Noble, doing very well too ( rose 10 cents ). I wish I have unlimited resources to buy them all ! UOB Kayhian, one of the few that did not move. It is seeing the effect of the candlestick set-up curse!


Wednesday, April 1, 2009

UOB Kayhian ( short )

Candlestick Opportunity Trade Set-up Found :

The counter MUST gap up ( by >1% ), head higher or lower is okay. The moment it pull back to below today's day high will trigger the short.

Cut loss is a must because this counter is currently uptrend. We only try to catch short term pull back.

PS: For educational purpose only, I personally will not trade. ButI will monitor this tomorrow and see if the set-up work.


SPC 30 minutes Chart

The 30 minutes intra-day chart shows SPC closed with a doji star (circled). Depending on the market sentiment tomorrow, there is a chance where SPC may reclaim the loss ground. So it is not so devastating (yet). The market was simply too choppy today! The resistance at $2.85 was too strong to break too!
Anyway, this trade is "in anticipation" of a breakout. The breakout may not happen. In any case, RMO and another MetaStock trading system maintained "buy" (and this will not change by a few ticks up or down) so I thought even if the breakout did not take place, the uptrend is still intact.