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Saturday, December 31, 2011

2011 Roundup

2011 has been a tumultuous year for the stock market. Research analysts from various brokerage firms have expected the STI  to rack up 10% ~ 15% of growth and hit 3,500 ~ 3,600. As it turns out, the STI has fallen 17% or 543.69 points to 2,646.35 ( from 3,190.04 on Dec 29, 2010 ).

It is now the time of the year where crystal ball gazers are giving their prediction again. For example, the S&P has predicted that the STI will gain 16% in 2012 to reach 3,100. For the full report from S&P, please click here.  On the other hand, Robert Prechter is bearish about the market. He predicted that January is as far as the stock market could hold up. For details, watch his interview with Yahoo Finance here. Note that Prechter has been a big bear for many years now. He predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will fall to below 1,000 by 2015 ~ 2016.

In general, most people are expecting the first half of 2012 to remain violate and bearish bias. A possible turn around may happen in the second half of 2012. 

I do not have a crystal ball and do not know how to forecast that far. I will be happy if I can be accurate on a week to week basis. As a trader, we trade regardless of the market is up or down. We may go long in the morning and turn short in the afternoon. Overall, I tend to incline that the first half of 2012 will continue to be difficult. Beyond that, we will need to reassess the market again.

Happy New Year!