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Saturday, August 13, 2011

Dow Jones Market Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average

It was a roller coaster week for the Dow, a wild volatility not seen in history!

Monday -634 points
Tuesday +429 points
Wednesday -519 points
Thursday +423 points
Friday +125 points

Technically, the Dow appears to have found short term support from the H&S chart pattern target and rebounded from there. Parabolic SAR buy phase has been triggered. We may see Dow trying to retest the neckline ( 12,000 ) in the near future. However, my intuition tells me, the rebounds may be short term. Dow may eventually head down to 9,500 by year end after a series of rebounds.

Locally, resistance for STI are 2,913 (Fibo 38.2%), 2,974 (Fibo 50%) and 3,034 (Fibo 61.8%).

I think it is ok to turn long temporarily to ride on the short term rebounds, but remember going long in a bear market is counter-trend trade so tight stop is necessary. Kep Corp, Kepland, NOL, Noble, Olam are all showing signs for rebounds. NOL, in particular, is looking very appealing ( see chart below ). Yangzijiang, on the other hand, may be a bargain.