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Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Silver Lining


Straits Times Index

I see light at the end of the tunnel !

My basis :

1. The closing today is an inverted hammer at bullish star position supported by 50% Fibonacci retracement between Feb 8 low to April 15 high. The inverted hammer is not generally the strongest of reversal patterns. However, it can be a good warning of an impending reversal because it is a candle that illustrates the bulls aren't completely dead and buried;
2. DI- is showing sign of over-extended while Stochastic is severely oversold;
3. The minimum target for violating the trendline ( 2,870 ) was met

That said, I do not have the power to dictate how the market should move. These are just some points observed that the bullish reversal may not be too far away if it is not already here yet. My worst case scenario is the gold color trendline in the chart confluence with Fibo 61.8%, which is 2,810 or another 50 points away.

Once the reversal has arrived, we will need to worry next is the index trying to form a 'head & shoulder' pattern !!



IndoAgri

During intra-day, prices have violated the uptrend line but fortunately closed above it with a rickshaw man candle at bullish star position. This trendline is pretty significant considering the number of touches it has established since March 2009. Confirmation is needed tomorrow to see if the bullish star ( 2 candles pattern ) will turn into morning star ( 3 candles pattern ), which will suggest a bullish reversal. On the other hand, if the trendline is breached on a closing basis, this will have a bearish implication.



SembCorp

As shown in the chart, the closing today was supported by the uptrend line. Buying at support is always good PROVIDED if the support hold.



Dow Jones Industrial Average

Interesting enough, I did not make any changes to the chart at all since it was first drawn a few weeks ago. Once trendline, support & resistance, moving averages are properly defined. The same chart could be used to predict major support / resistance ( which I have not changed it for week - 10,770 )



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